Fallout
I know it’s a crude analogy and all that, but didn’t I say something here before about Japan becoming the Israel of East Asia? Now we get Japan threatening pre-emptive strikes against the North. Rather reminiscent of this. Not surprisingly the reaction from the South Korean government has been pretty scathing. I think they’ve noticed that this whole situation has given the Japanese right a golden opportunity to move ahead with its agenda.
There are a great many other fascinating aspects of the fallout (oh dear…) from the North Korean missile flinging exercise. Overall, there is definitely a sense of the US losing its grip on Northeast Asia as China and Russia become much more assertive geopolitically. It seems as though Russia is particularly confident, having regained control of Central Asia over the last year. And of course both countries appear to be well aware that they need to take advantage of the current difficulties of the US in the Middle East. (Can’t imagine what the atmosphere is going to be like at the upcoming G8 meeting in St Petersberg).
I should just add that although this might all seem like an intriguing game of geopolitical chess from a distance, if things were to heat up any further it would be the people of the Korean peninsula who would suffer, as usual.
You make a very interesting point with your comparison between Japan and Israel. I went back to your June 22 post and agree with you that it’s not inconceivable for Japan to be more assertive in the future as far as these long-standing territorial disputes go. This is certainly a very tense time for the region.
Comment by RisingSunofNihon — July 11, 2006 @ 9:27 pm
Actually, Japan is the Germany of East Asia. China is Russia, and Korea is Poland.
Comment by Tony — July 12, 2006 @ 5:29 am
Yes, but who is France?
Comment by kotaji — July 12, 2006 @ 10:11 am
Is it common to compare Japan with Israel? I got shocked because I thought the other way around. China and Russia are this time isolated from other 10 security council members. If you think I’m wrong, that’s OK. Just wanted to know if many Korean think like that.
I think your opinion is mainly based on Hankyoreh newspaper. How much of Korean read the newspaper?
Comment by yellowpeep — July 13, 2006 @ 1:46 am
France is the runner-up in this year’s World Cup. Or hadn’t you noticed?
Comment by Tony — July 13, 2006 @ 6:57 am
Yellowpeep:
I must admit that I didn’t realise that the Hangyoreh was also putting forward this sort of view. I also have no idea how widespread such a view might be in Korea - mainly since I don’t live in Korea and I’m not Korean.
As for the actual point I’m making, I certainly don’t want to take this analogy too far. The point I want to make is that Japan seems to be in a sort of transition from a wholly subordinate partner to the US in Northeast Asia - basically a large aircraft carrier that had its security guaranteed by the US - to a semi-independent proxy power with a much longer leash. This marks quite a significant shift in the power relations of Northeast Asia and you can see this in the strains it is causing between all the countries in the region.
Comment by kotaji — July 28, 2006 @ 7:59 am
Thank you for your answer.
Comment by yellowpeep — July 29, 2006 @ 8:17 pm